Azuay Is Under an Orange Weather Alert for Carnival Weekend — Here's What That Means

Right as Carnival weekend kicks off, the Ecuadorian government has updated its rainy season alert classifications — and Azuay Province, where Cuenca sits, is under an orange alert (moderate risk).

This doesn't mean panic. It means pay attention, especially if you're traveling.

The Alert Map

Red Alert (Highest Risk) — 3 provinces:

• Pichincha
• Esmeraldas
• Los Ríos

These three have the highest probability of rain-related emergencies. If you're driving to Quito or the northern coast, expect potential landslides, flooding, and road closures.

Orange Alert (Moderate Risk) — 15 provinces including:

• Azuay (that's us)
• Guayas, El Oro, Loja, Bolívar, Chimborazo, Cotopaxi, Imbabura, Santo Domingo, Napo, Orellana, Morona Santiago, Manabí, Carchi, Sucumbíos

Yellow Alert (Lower Risk) — 4 provinces:

• Tungurahua, Cañar, Pastaza, Santa Elena

What "Orange Alert" Means for Cuenca

For daily life in the city, an orange alert during rainy season is pretty standard for this time of year. You already know the pattern: mornings are usually clear, afternoons bring rain, sometimes heavy. That's been the reality since December.

What the alert specifically signals:

• Higher-than-normal rainfall expected through the February–April window
• Increased risk of localized flooding in low-lying areas, especially near rivers
• Landslide risk on mountain roads — relevant if you're driving Cajas, heading to the coast via Molleturo, or taking any mountain highway
• River levels rising — the Tomebamba, Yanuncay, Tarqui, and Machángara are all worth watching

If You're Driving This Weekend

This is the big one. Thousands of people leave Cuenca for the coast during Carnival, and the roads between the Sierra and the coast are where rainy season gets dangerous.

Key routes to watch:

• Cuenca → Guayaquil (via Molleturo/Cajas): This road crosses the páramo at over 4,000 meters and descends sharply to the coast. Fog, rain, and landslides are all possible. Drive during daylight hours.
• Cuenca → Machala (via Girón/Santa Isabel): Lower altitude but still mountain roads. Watch for rock falls.
• Cuenca → Loja: Generally safer but subject to localized flooding in valleys.

Practical tips:

• Drive in the morning. Seriously. Heavy rain tends to hit in the afternoon, and mountain fog gets worse after 3 PM.
• Check road conditions before leaving. ECU 911 and EMOV post updates on social media. So does the national transit agency (ANT).
• Keep your tank full. If a road closes, you don't want to be stranded with an empty tank.
• Carry a phone charger and water. Basic emergency prep if you get stuck.
• Don't cross flooded roads. It looks shallow. It's not. Every year someone learns this the hard way.

If You're Staying in Cuenca

The orange alert mostly means what you already experience: expect afternoon rain every day this weekend. Plan outdoor Carnival activities (parade, plaza events, fairs) for the morning when it's usually dry.

Keep an eye on river levels if you live near the Tomebamba or Yanuncay. In heavy downpours, these rivers can rise quickly. The city has flood monitoring systems and will alert via emergency channels if levels get critical.

How They Set These Alerts

The government uses four factors to classify provinces:

1. Number of weather-related emergencies and affected people so far this year
2. INAMHI seasonal forecasts for February through April
3. Historical precipitation data for each province
4. Short-term weather modeling

The alerts are updated regularly, so this could shift to yellow (better) or red (worse) depending on how the next few weeks play out.

Bottom line: enjoy Carnival, but respect the weather. This is the heaviest part of rainy season, and the mountains don't care about your holiday plans.

Sources: Teleamazonas, INAMHI